Written by Did you know a newly discovered asteroid called 2024 YR4 has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in December 2032? As of 2025, that’s only 7 years away!
This giant asteroid is about 196 feet (60 meters) wide, which is about the size of a school bus or half a football field.
That’s huge!
But there’s no need to fret. In Feb 2025, it was about 27 million miles away from Earth. It was first spotted in Rio Hurtado, Chile, under the ATLAS project on December 27, 2024.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has reported that asteroid 2024 YR4 will likely get as close as 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) to Earth on December 22, 2032.
To help you understand how far 106,200 kilometers is from Earth, let’s compare it to something more familiar, like the distance to the Moon.
The average distance from Earth to the Moon is about 384,400 kilometers (238,855 miles) . If we think about 106,200 kilometers, it’s around one-quarter of the way to the Moon. So, 106,200 kilometers is quite far, but still much closer to us than the Moon!
Another way to think about it is to imagine driving a car. If you could drive fast at 100 kilometers per hour (62.14 mph), it would take about 1,062 hours (over 44 days) to travel 106,200 kilometers without stopping.
However, there are some uncertainties about the asteroid’s path, which could make it more likely to crash into our planet.
David Rankin, a Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter, states that the 2024 YR4 is about the same size as the objects linked to past events like the 1908 Tunguska explosion.
The Tunguska explosion occurred on June 30, 1908, in remote Siberia, Russia. It’s the largest recorded asteroid strike event in human history.
A giant space rock, possibly a comet or a meteor, entered Earth’s atmosphere. It didn’t hit the ground but exploded high above, which created a massive explosion.
This explosion was so powerful that it knocked down around 80 million trees over 2,000 square kilometers, which is the size of a small country.
Even though there were no buildings or houses in that area because it was mostly forest, the explosion was so strong that it spread throughout Eurasia, and the shock waves from the explosion were felt in Germany, Denmark, Croatia, and the UK.
Scientists studied the area later and found signs of the explosion, but few people saw it because it happened in such a remote place.
Image Credit: Magazine Around the World, 1931
Now, if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, it could cause a huge explosion in the sky or a big crater in the ground. Some experts report that it could hit anywhere from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to South Africa.
Because of its collision risk, 2024 YR4 is at the top of the impact risk lists for both the European Space Agency and NASA. It’s rated a three on the Torino risk scale, meaning astronomers are paying close attention.
For the Torino risk scale, it goes from 0 to 10:
- 0 means there’s no risk of it hitting Earth at all.
- 1 means there’s a very low chance, but we should still keep an eye on it.
- 2 – 4 means there’s a small possibility it might come close or even hit, but it’s not very likely.
- 5 – 7 shows a more serious risk, where scientists have to watch it closely.
- 8 – 10 indicates a very high impact risk, and scientists would be very concerned about it.
Scientists say there is a higher chance that this asteroid will hit Earth, but they reassure everyone to stay calm.
Rankin said, “It is just important to keep in mind that its orbit is still too uncertain to know if it will hit, and right now, the most likely outcome is a miss. This impact corridor estimation will eventually go stale with new observations and better orbit calculations.”
In 2028, experts will have a chance to learn more about this asteroid because it will pass about 5 million miles from Earth. Astronomers are keeping a close watch on asteroid 2024 YR4.
Before I end this post. I’m sure you’ve had this thought as well.
Here’s a thought: What if an asteroid hits Earth someday? Do you think we could survive something like that? That would be catastrophic, right?
But fear not. In my last post about asteroids, NASA has had a method of stopping an asteroid from hitting Earth by crashing a spacecraft on the asteroid.
You can read the article here.
NASA’s DART Mission Will Crash A Spacecraft Into A 525-Foot-Wide Asteroid
(New Trend??)
